Have You Just Discovered A Solution To A Problem - Or Is It A Solution Needing A Problem?

Sunday 22nd February 2009

Everyone naturally hopes that their invention will be among the former, but fortunately that is not always the case.

Newly-invented devices generally fall into one of two categories - either "A solution to a problem" or "A solution needing a problem".  The first category is, of course, the more common, since inventors usually obtain their inspiration from seeing an unsolved problem.  Early incarnations of such devices can be quite amusing, as in the case of the Victorian hand-operated vacuum cleaners.  It is only fair to recall that even these cumbersome machines were a considerable improvement on the previous technique for cleaning carpets, which involved scattering damp tealeaves around and then sweeping them up!  Inventions in the second category, however, are quite rare but two famous examples are the "MASER" and "Liquid Crystals".

"MASER" is an acronym for "Microwave Amplification by the Stimulated Emission of Radiation".  The first such device was built in 1953, although it had no practical application.  In 1960, the first optical MASER, now better known as a "LASER", for "Light Amplification by the Stimulated Emission of Radiation", was demonstrated, even though it too had no known practical application.  Times have certainly changed dramatically since then.  Modern life would be inconceivable without the CD or its descendants the DVD and Blu-Ray disc, none of which could even exist without the laser.  The civil engineers who built the Channel Tunnel relied on laser-enabled equipment to provide the precise alignment and distance measurements they required, while clothing manufacturers use lasers to cut fabric with great accuracy at far higher speed than would otherwise be possible.

"Liquid Crystals" were first discovered in the late 19th century, but remained generally regarded as little more than scientific curiosities and ignored until the early 1970's, when they were adopted by the Japanese electronics industry for use in digital quartz wristwatches.  In 2008, LCD monitor sales worldwide exceeded those of CRT displays, which are now all but obsolete.  CRT televisions are no longer manufactured and even plasma screens are under pressure, their place having been having been usurped by LCD models.

It is becoming steadily more difficult for businesses and home users alike to justify keeping a CRT monitor any longer in this day and age.  LCD displays are now available which combine all the virtues of good quality images, amazingly high resolutions, low power consumption, large screen size and low price.  As a bonus, they are much thinner than the bulky, old-fashioned CRT monitors: a typical LCD monitor is only about 4" deep, against at least 18" for even the "short-tube" CRT equivalent.  Better still, because the LCD panel does not have to sweep an electron beam across the screen to generate the image, a large panel has hardly any more depth than a much smaller one.  The resulting saving in valuable real-estate on the user's desk, together with the reduction in heat generated, makes the question "Should we scrap our CRT displays and replace them with LCD units?" pretty well a no-brainer.  Please remember to follow correct lifting procedures when moving CRT displays, as they are heavy and awkwardly-shaped, with the accompanying risk of lower back injuries.  It is also important to comply with the relevant WEEE directives.

Warning, Will Robinson!

Sunday 15th February 2009

This catchphrase was famously used by the Robot in the classic 1960s American television series "Lost in Space". To bring it up to date merely requires the phrase "Hard times ahead!" to be appended.

At one time, it was hardly possible to open a newspaper or watch the television news without encountering the latest gloomy predictions about "Global Warming".  Now, the focus has changed to the economic situation.  For a time, the official Government view was "Downturn, what downturn?".  This eventually had to be changed to "Recession, what recession?".  The current forecasts are leaning towards a full-blown depression, a situation which has not been seen since the late 1920's.  In such difficult times, the old adage "Work smarter, not harder" is inadequate.  Instead, it is necessary to "Work smarter, as well as harder".

The traditional "received wisdom" for companies in a time of recession was that they should reduce their running costs.  The most obvious way to do this was, of course, to make staff redundant.  However, when the recession ended, those companies which had concentrated on staff reduction to an excessive degree and had ignored other potential areas in which costs could be reduced, found that they no longer had enough of the appropriately-skilled staff to resume normal trading.  As a result, they did not survive for long thereafter.

The modern thinking is rather different.  Certainly, costs must be reduced, of that there is no doubt at all.  The modern wisdom is that, since the recession will not last forever, it is essential to bear this in mind when determining the action to be taken.  Usually, this will mean cutting as few staff as possible, especially those whose skills will be essential to the company's eventual recovery.  A further "line of attack" is to negotiate temporary salary reductions or part-time working with those essential staff.  This is effectively the technique recently invoked by Honda at their Swindon plant.  Because the demand for new cars has collapsed, Honda's stockgrounds are full to bursting with unsold vehicles.  They have therefore closed their production-lines for four months, with the staff being sent home on full pay for the first two months and half-pay thereafter.  When the demand returns, Honda should be well-placed to take advantage of it.

The "Warning, Will Robinson!" in this case is very much a sting-in-the tail.  What if the recession really does become a depression?  The generally-accepted definition of recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth.  Similarly, two consecutive quarters of negative inflation, or deflation, could be regarded as a depression.  In such a difficult economic climate, only the fittest companies will survive.  Ironically, these will probably be the companies who followed the traditional, rather than the modern, way of thinking. 

Unfortunately, the extreme measures which many companies, especially those with high debt-to-equity ratios, will have to take if they expect a depression, will leave them even worse-placed if it does not materialise.  If, on the other hand, they they do not take extreme measures and a depression does materialise, they will be unable to survive.  In either case, the companies under the greatest pressure will be those with high debt-to-equity ratios.  For most such businesses, even a recession will be very difficult, while for many of them it will be terminal.
 
Probably the catchphrase should actually be updated to "Warning, Will Robinson!  Dust off your crystal ball - or else!".  

The Data Centre Of The Future Concierge

Sunday 8th February 2009

What a mouthful - but one which is well worth chewing!

Data Centres are not generally regarded as particularly exciting or even interesting.  After all, are they not merely large rooms stuffed with rack upon rack of servers, all whirring away happily and consuming vast amounts of energy in the process?

Actually, no.  For a server to be any use at all for its intended purpose, it must be accessible to at least one other computer.  In this most trivial of situations, a simple crossover ethernet cable could be used, but this would certainly not justify locating the server in a data centre.  As soon as two or more computers are to be connected to the server, it is necessary to provide a proper network with switches, routers and other hardware.

Over 80% of British households now have broadband Internet access of one form or another.  The provider of the broadband service usually supplies a "free" router, which very conveniently has a built-in 4-port switch and often a wireless capability as well.  Although such equipment is necessarily inexpensive, it is perfectly adequate for the normal domestic
environment.  At the data centre end, "inexpensive" is not a word which is in regular daily use.  The network hardware necessary to provide the connectivity needed by all those whirring servers is both immensely powerful and very costly. 

Fortunately, Cisco is one of the few companies which can (and do) manufacture and supply everything required.

Having established a dominant position over many years as a provider of all the elements of the network infrastructure, Cisco is now gradually moving into the server market.  In keeping with its reputation for high-end, expensive networking equipment, Cisco's new "California" blade server is positioned at the rarefied top end of the blade server market, which is itself at the upper end of the server marketplace.  These blade servers offer an extremely high packing density, which is very important since data centre facilities are typically priced by floor area.  Such blade servers have, until now, usually been provided only by the likes of IBM, HP and Dell.

In networking environments where money is somewhat less important than top-class performance and maximum reliability, Cisco enjoys a practically unrivalled reputation.  That it should now be trying to compete with the established players in the blade server field is an indication of how confident it is in its own ability to succeed and its determination, as well as a desire to capitalise on its towering reputation.  Bearing in mind that Cisco is both profitable and is blessed with massive cash reserves, it must surely be only a matter of time before the first Cisco pedestal server appears, followed in due course by workstations and laptops.  How long will it be until the first Cisco netbook goes on sale?

Cisco have prepared a video to showcase their vision, at http://www.thedcofthefuture.com.  It is well worth viewing, if only for the rare privilege of seeing an example of a well-designed website which manages to be visually attractive, easy-to-use and packed with information, all at the same time.

Windows7 Is Coming - A Big Yawn Or A Big Yippee?

Sunday 1st February 2009

Early indications are that Windows7 may actually be quite good, although it is still too soon to be certain.

Often, the first version of any completely new product, whether or not it is IT-related, has design flaws or other, more serious, faults.  For example, the early models of the distinctive Austin Mini, designed by Sit Alec Issigonis and first manufactured in 1959, let in the rain to such an extent that a pool of water was produced under the driver's feet.  This was
soon rectified and the Mini went on to become an icon of the 1960's.  The outcome is not always so happy.  In 1958, Ford started production of the infamous Edsel.  Although it was by no means the worst automobile ever built, it was at best mediocre.  Unfortunately, the marketing campaign raised the American public's expectations to such an unrealistic level that
even if the Edsel had been far and away the best automobile ever made, it would have had difficulty living up to it. The
public rapidly became disillusioned, both with the reality of the Edsel and with Ford as a whole.
 
To its credit, Ford's management realised in time that their company was close to collapse and allowed the Edsel to sink without trace.  They have never again made the same mistake with over-blown marketing hype. 

In the case of computer software, some companies stumble to a greater or lesser extent with the first release of a new product, then fairly rapidly release patches which address the problems.  This is why so many people are reluctant to install Version 1.0 of a new application.  As befits one of the most successful companies the world has even seen, Microsoft tends to work rather differently.  In addition to having a reputation for "getting it wrong" first time round, Microsoft has a tendency to alternate between "good" and "turkey", especially where its workstation operating systems are concerned. 

MS-DOS V3 was, by the standards of the day, rather good.  MS-DOS V4 was dire, but MS-DOS V5 reclaimed the crown.  In the Windows arena, Windows3 was popular, but Microsoft stumbled with Windows95.  Windows98 was much better, only to be followed by the Edsel-like WindowsME.  The first real version of WindowsNT was V3.51, rapidly replaced with V4.  This was the mainstay of business for years, although its Service Packs tended to follow the "good/turkey" pattern. Windows2000 was, mercifully, put out of its misery by WindowsXP.  Then along came Vista.  Rather in the same way as Ford's marketing
department had done with the Edsel 50 years before, the Microsoft marketing department went into overdrive over Vista.  Unfortunately, the similarities with the Edsel continued into the product.  Having failed to live up to the hype, Vista's plentiful weaknesses became the butt of jokes and rapidly eclipsed its good points in the minds of corporate buyers.  Now,

Windows7 is on its way and, based on the rule of alternate "good" and "turkey" releases, it should be good.

Time alone will tell!  

This time round, the marketing is much more subdued, whilst the beta release offers a far more elegant, refined experience than the overblown one of Vista.  In many respects, it is more like a modern Linux distribution running the KDE4 Window Manager than could have been envisaged when Vista first arrived.  The biggest difference, of course, is that while the Linux distribution is free, there is no suggestion that the same will apply to any release version of Windows7.

The time-limited beta version of Windows7 is available from www.microsoft.com as a free download.  Although it can be installed on a physical machine, it would be much wiser to install it on a virtual machine.  Suitable virtualisation software is available from http://www.virtualbox.org and http://www.vmware.com, also as free downloads.